Friday, October 24, 2008

How the MSNBC led media continues to manipulate math to make it seem like Barack Obama is too far ahead of John McCain.

MSNBC keeps citing national polls that show Barack Obama up by 12 or 13 percentage points. There is a definite misleading nature to this type of polling. Barack Obama may be hugely ahead in a few big states, like Illinois, New York and California, but that is not necessary the best of news for Barack Obama.

If Barack Obama has a huge lead in Illinois, New York and California, that may just be inflating the national polling numbers while meaning nothing in all of the closer races in the remaining states. Sure I'd rather be the candidate that that leads in New York, California and Illinois, and is neck and neck in the total vote of the other 47 races, but this is an electoral race, and a bigger lead in California, Illnois, and New York does not net Barack Obama any additional electoral college votes versus barely winning in those same three states.

It would appear that the way for John McCain to win is to barely win in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Barack Obama could poll 10 points higher among the six large states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, California, New York and Illinois, but still end up splitting those six states.

If you want to get a truer sense of the overall race, the top five vote getting states of each candidate should be thrown out entirely, then poll the remaining 40 states to get a better sense of each candidates overall popularity. However, even then, if John McCain keeps eeking out 50-49% victories while Barack Obama has a couple of 66-33% victories, John McCain will actually do MUCH MUCH better in an electoral college race than in the national polls that simply poll for overall popularity.

However, the problem is the media itself is trying to use huge leads for Barack Obama in three large states to imply that the presidential race is already over. I actually wouldn't feel sorry about now if the MSNBC news headquarters blew a few fuses so we wouldn't have to hear their pro Barack Obama rant spewed fortg as fact, and in the process actually continue to unfairly manipulate the race.

4 comments:

Chris in Canoga Park said...

You're an idiot.

There's all kinds of state by state polling going on. Have you seen any of the electoral projection maps put out by non-partisan groups like pollster.com or realclearpolitics.com? Check them out.

Currently, Barack is solidly ahead in enough states to net him 255 EVs. He has a smaller lead, but outside the margin of error in other states to probably net him 51 more. McCain has 142 EVs from states that are solidly McCain, and 15 from those that are leaning his way. There are 75 remaining EVs from states that are too close to call.

Now, polls represent a snapshot in time, and a lot can change between now and 11/4. It's still possible that McCain could win. That lies in the realm of the doable. But statistically, it's a major longshot.

The point is though, that you are displaying a gross lack of comprehension of statistics, and how polling works. You're making seriously incorrect assumptions, and then suggesting that the implication of your own misunderstanding is that we are being lied to on a grand scale.

That's delusional.

Reading your various blogs, it sure seems like there are a lot of things you don't understand.

Lastly, if I could give you a bit of professional advice, I'd be sure to keep your blogger profile and your professional sites as far away from each other as possible. No one from "Starbucks, Target, Subway" is ever going to give you a chance to tell them your ideas if they look you up and see your several websites full of delusional paranoid ranting.

You know why? Because they don't like to hire crazy people.

Alessandro Machi said...

Hi Chris, You basically just stated that Barack Obama DOES NOT have the necessary electoral college votes locked up to win, yet that IS NOT what the mainstream media is reporting. They are already predicting a landslide victory, in essence trying to create the news rather than just report it.

Overall Barack Obama could poll 5-10 points higher in thoe six big states mentioned in my articlde, but it is still feasible that John McCain could win three of those six big states, basically neutralizing the popular vote advantage Barack Obama has.

There is no idiocy in that observation, but there is idiocy in calling someone an idiot and than providing no back up data to prove your point.

Or is your point that it is ok for MSNBC to report their opinion as fact, because that is pure idiocy.

Chris in Canoga Park said...

You're making vast generalizations. The media is reporting that things look pretty unlikely for McCain. That's not opinion, it's a perfectly reasonable and sane analysis of the current political landscape.

If you haven't noticed, no one is really talking about NY or CA in any capacity whatsoever. Likewise, we don't hear much talk about TX, or UT, or AL. All those states' outcomes are foregone conclusions. The reasons why there is a lot of talk about battleground states is because, well, polling in those states shows tight races. Even moreso, there are several states that at one time would have been foregone conclusions as McCain wins, but that are looking like pretty likely Obama wins. As a general rule, the popular vote actually is pretty reflective of the electoral vote. There are exceptions, but as a rule of thumb it works. At any rate, the notion that Obama is facing an extremely likely win is not just based on national polling. It's based on state by state polling, the data for which is all out there, readily available for anyone to see. And state polling, as it indicates at this particular moment in time, is indicating a very probable victory for Obama, at what is likely to be a considerable margin.

The point here is that your own analysis is just completely off. It's nonsense. It's gibberish. It's the insane ramblings of some confused motherfucker who thinks the black helicopters are out to get him.

One last point I'd like to make--you keep hammering this notion about the media "reporting opinion as fact." This indicates to me that you lack the critical thinking skills to differentiate between analysis, editorializing, and reporting. At the same time, you seem to reserve your disdain for MSNBC, without indicating how any of the other news channels are any different. I really find you quite pathtic.

Alessandro Machi said...

You don't believe the big states are being counted in the national polls, but of course they are being counted in EVERY national poll, that is why it is a national poll.

Of course the Biggest states that favore Barack Obama are included in that. That is how MSNBC is able to make claims of double digit leads.

Most rational people think the race is 4-6 points apart, but if you listen to MSNBC, they like to say it is 10-13 points apart.

If the race is 4-6 points apart, and as I said in my article, Barack has leads of 15-20 points in a couple of big states, that means the actual competition in many of the states is much, much closer.

You shouldn't be call other people idiotic if you can't understand the basic points they are making.